Gold price prediction: How low can gold prices go? Expert reveals outlook amid global uncertainty

Gold Price Prediction: With Diwali around the corner, buyers are keeping a close eye on gold prices, as gold jewellery remains a popular purchase during the festive season. For those planning to buy gold this Diwali, here is what an expert said about the yellow metal's near-term price outlook and long-term potential. Gold prices may face some near-term pressure amid rising oil prices and inflation concerns linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but the downside appears limited, according to a market expert, Chirag Sheth of Public Gold Bullion (SG) Pte. Ltd. The long-term outlook for the yellow metal remains positive, supported by expectations around US Federal Reserve policy and renewed buying interest in gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and physical markets.

Speaking on an episode of Gold Mahakumbh 2026, hosted by ET NOW and ET NOW Swadesh on October 19, 2026, the expert said gold prices could decline by another $100-$200 at most if selling pressure persists, while the metal continues to offer significant upside potential over the longer term. The expert noted that gold traditionally benefits from global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. However, the current conflict in the Middle East has brought oil prices and inflation into sharper focus, creating a different set of challenges for the precious metal.

“I think we are at an interesting juncture,” the expert said, highlighting the possibility of limited downside in gold prices despite the near-term pressure.

Fed policy, ETF inflows to support gold prices

The expert said signals from the US Federal Reserve indicating that two consecutive rate hikes are unlikely have helped gold find support. Buying interest has also started to emerge in gold ETFs and certain physical markets, providing additional support to prices.

“On the downside, probably the downside is pretty limited. I think another maybe $100-$200 at max where gold prices could fall if there is pressure,” the expert said.

Despite near-term uncertainties, the expert maintained that the long-term structure for gold remains positive, with considerable upside potential.

Gold Price Today, October 20: Gold extends losing streak for third session as dollar, US yields rise

Gold prices remained under pressure in early trade on Tuesday (October 20), with the precious metal heading for a third consecutive session of losses as a stronger US dollar and higher US Treasury yields weighed on bullion demand. Spot gold was down 0.3 per cent, or USD 10, at USD 4,130.80 per ounce (As of 6:00 am). Spot silver also traded lower, slipping 0.4 per cent to USD 56.88 per ounce. The decline extended the recent weakness in precious metals, with gold hovering slightly above the USD 4,100-per-ounce mark during early trading hours.

Why are gold prices falling?

Bullion prices came under pressure as the US dollar strengthened, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.The US Dollar Index remained close to the 102 level, adding to the pressure on gold prices.

At the same time, US Treasury yields stayed elevated, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hovering above 5 per cent. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Higher bond yields typically attract investor interest towards interest-bearing assets, reducing demand for bullion.

Gold Mahakumbh 2026

ET NOW and ET NOW Swadesh hosted Gold Mahakumbh 2026 on October 19, 2026, bringing together industry veterans, market analysts and trade experts to decode gold and silver price trends ahead of the festive and wedding season. The programme examined key factors influencing precious metal prices and the outlook for investors and buyers.

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