Has monsoon disappeared? Satellite captures 70% of India without rain clouds

Large parts of India have gone unusually quiet in the middle of the monsoon season.

Satellite images on Saturday, July 11, showed nearly 70-80% of the country without or minimal cloud cover, with regions receiving little or no rainfall.

The deficiency is noticeable because it comes just days after the southwest monsoon covered the entire country.

After the recent days marked with heavy rain and consequent disruptions across major cities, the sudden dry spell has raised questions about what is disrupting India's main rainy season.

The answer, it turns out, may lie thousands of kilometres away over the western Pacific Ocean.

WHAT IS DISRUPTING INDIA'S MONSOON?

The southwest monsoon depends on moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean and a low-pressure belt known as the monsoon trough to bring widespread rain across the country.

However, a powerful tropical cyclone over the western Pacific is currently drawing moisture and atmospheric circulation away from the Indian subcontinent.

As a result, the monsoon trough has weakened, leading to a sharp decline in rainfall across much of India.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also forecast subdued rainfall activity over large parts of central and peninsular India for the next few days, with the next widespread spell of rain expected only after atmospheric conditions become favourable again.

UNEVEN MONSOON SO FAR

The 2026 southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 9, just a day later than its normal schedule. But its journey has been far from smooth.

June ended with India recording a rainfall deficit of nearly 40%, one of the weakest starts to the season in recent years.

Heavy rain during the final days of June and the first week of July significantly narrowed the shortfall, bringing the nationwide deficit down to around 14%.

The rainfall, however, has remained highly uneven.

While several parts of western and eastern India received good showers, central states continue to face some significant rainfall deficits.

WHAT'S NEXT?

The IMD expects rainfall during the remainder of July to stay below the long-period average, with monthly rainfall likely to remain below 94% of normal.

At the same time, a developing El Nino in the equatorial Pacific is being closely watched, as it can alter global weather patterns and often weakens the Indian monsoon later in the season.

Many parts of the country are also likely to experience above-normal daytime temperatures until the next active monsoon phase develops.

For now, India's monsoon hasn't disappeared, but has simply entered a weak phase.

Whether it regains strength in the coming weeks will depend on how quickly Pacific weather systems weaken and the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent is restored.